17/03/14: Fuelling the Future

 It has been reported that the University College London and Lloyd’s Register have collaborated on a project researching the drivers for the future energy mix in shipping by 2030 and have now issued a document.

‘Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030’ gives views into future fuel demand for the containership, bulk carrier/general cargo and tanker sectors – which represents approximately 70 per cent of the global shipping industry’s fuel demands.

It is interesting that NGO’s have put much emphasis on farming and harvesting practices when it comes to sustainability and low carbon footprint issues seemingly forgetting about the essential transport that is required to move product. Whilst shipping can control its own destiny to some extent –ship-owners will always focus on compliance and profitability. If society wants lower GHG emissions and cleaner fuel, change in shipping has to be driven by practical regulation and market forces so that cleaner, more efficient ships, are more profitable than less efficient ships with higher GHG emissions.

Lloyd’s Register commented “Shipping is the enabler of world trade – if world trade grows then so will seaborne tonne miles of cargo. As we can expect strong growth for shipping, with emissions regulations and rising energy costs, shipping decision makers will benefit from a clearer understanding of the potential scenarios for marine fuel demand.”

The report shows according to the classification society, these scenarios include:

• Status quo – The world will continue its current growth momentum with some booms and busts over the next twenty years
• Global commons – A shift to concern over resource limitation and environmental degradation will see a desire for a more sustainable world being developed and fairness in wealth distribution. Governments will find common ground and accelerated economic growth, within a framework of sustainable development, which will follow
• Competing nations – States act in their own national interest. There will be little effort to forge agreement amongst governments for sustainable development and international norms. This is a self-interest and zero-sum world with a likely rise in protectionism and slower economic growth

“The marine fuel mix for containers, bulk carriers and tankers by 2030 looks decreasingly conventional,” continued Lloyd’s Register. “Heavy fuel oil (HFO) will still be very much around in 2030, but in different proportions for each scenario: 47 per cent in Status quo, to a higher 66 per cent in Competing nations and a 58 per cent share in Global commons – the most optimistic of scenarios for society.

“A high share of HFO, of course, means a high uptake of emissions abatement technology when global emissions regulations enter into force. The declining share of HFO stands to be offset by low sulphur alternatives, such as MDO/MGO, LSHFO, and by LNG,” Lloyd’s continued, “to varying degrees depending on each ship type and scenario. LNG, for example, is predicted to reach a maximum 11 per cent share by 2030 in the Status quo scenario.There is also the entry of hydrogen as an emerging shipping fuel in the 2030 Global commons scenario, which favours the uptake of low carbon technologies stimulated by a significant carbon price.”

“I think that the report underlines that any transition from a dependency on HFO will be an evolutionary process,” said project leader and Lloyd’s environmental consultant Dimitris Argyros. “LNG is forecast to grow from a very low base to a significant market share by 2030 - even if there is no major retro-fit revolution – most of the LNG take-up will be in new buildings. But it is important to note that an 11 per cent share in 2030 is the equivalent in volume of about 20 per cent of the bunker market today.”

Lloyd’s concluded ‘The uptake of engine and alternative propulsion technology and the emergence of non-fossil fuels can only be driven by a society’s ability to create a world with lower GHG emissions – the technology is not the barrier.”

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